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El cambio climático en cuatro preguntas

El cambio climático es una realidad incuestionable cuyas preocupantes consecuencias se están manifestando por todo el planeta. Es necesario aplicar medidas urgentes antes de que sea demasiado tarde. Sin embargo, la perspectiva de esta devastadora catástrofe es paralizadora y parece que nadie sabe demasiado bien por dónde empezar. Isabel Moreno —física, geofísica, meteoróloga y autora de «Cambio climático para principiantes» (Plan B)— dialoga con su editor, Gonzalo Eltesch, sobre las consecuencias del aumento constante de las temperaturas, su irreversibilidad y las posibles acciones que pueden tomarse para frenar su avance, porque el mañana depende de las decisiones que se tomen hoy.   

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Isabel Moreno \u2014f\u00edsica, geof\u00edsica, meteor\u00f3loga y autora de \u00abCambio clim\u00e1tico para principiantes\u00bb (Plan B)\u2014 dialoga con su editor, Gonzalo Eltesch, sobre las consecuencias del aumento constante de las temperaturas, su irreversibilidad y las posibles acciones que pueden tomarse para frenar su avance, porque el ma\u00f1ana depende de las decisiones que se tomen hoy.\u00a0 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Eltesch:\u00a0\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las causas del cambio clim\u00e1tico?<\/b><\/p><p><strong><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/202296-isabel-moreno\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Isabel Moreno<\/a><\/span>:<\/strong> Del actual, principalmente las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero provenientes de las actividades del ser humano. Los cambios clim\u00e1ticos se producen porque hay un desequilibrio entre la energ\u00eda que entra y que sale en el sistema clim\u00e1tico y esto se puede conseguir de m\u00faltiples formas pero, en el cambio actual, son las actividades del ser humano las que est\u00e1n detr\u00e1s de \u00e9l. Como dec\u00eda, la emisi\u00f3n de gases de efecto invernadero provocada por el ser humano es la principal causa, pero nuestra especie tambi\u00e9n contribuye de otras formas, bien sea emitiendo otro tipo de gases\u00a0o cambiando los usos de suelo.<\/p><p><b>Gonzalo Eltesch<\/b><strong>:\u00a0<\/strong><b>En diferentes lugares del mundo se est\u00e1n produciendo ya sea olas de fr\u00edo u olas de calor, \u00bfpor qu\u00e9 este gran contraste?<\/b><\/p><p><strong>Isabel Moreno<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong> Porque que el planeta se est\u00e9 calentando no implica que en todos los lugares del mundo, todos los d\u00edas del a\u00f1o, vaya a hacer m\u00e1s calor de lo normal\u2026 el sistema clim\u00e1tico se comporta de una forma un poco m\u00e1s compleja y provoca que los extremos c\u00e1lidos sean mucho m\u00e1s frecuentes e intensos que antes, pero no elimina los extremos fr\u00edos. De hecho, esto estaba ya predicho hace tiempo: las olas de fr\u00edo no iban a desaparecer, pero s\u00ed se iban a hacer menos frecuentes y es justo lo que estamos observando en la actualidad. Por otro lado, hay otras relaciones que pueden traer olas de fr\u00edo a algunas regiones del mundo o una alternancia m\u00e1s marcada entre episodios de calor extremo seguidos de temperaturas m\u00e1s bajas.\u00a0 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Eltesch<\/b><strong>:\u00a0<\/strong><b>\u00bfHay vuelta atr\u00e1s para evitar una cat\u00e1strofe clim\u00e1tica?<\/b><\/p><p><strong>Isabel Moreno<\/strong><strong>:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00bfQu\u00e9 consideramos cat\u00e1strofe? Algunas personas consideramos que los cambios que ya se han producido son una cat\u00e1strofe\u2026 y lo peor es que en determinados aspectos ya no hay vuelta atr\u00e1s hagamos lo que hagamos, como en el caso de la subida del nivel del mar. El sistema clim\u00e1tico tiene una inercia enorme y, en\u00a0determinados casos, cada paso avanzado es un paso del que costar\u00e1 mucho retroceder. En algunos aspectos son d\u00e9cadas, en otros siglos, milenios\u2026 Ahora bien, \u00bfqu\u00e9 preferimos? \u00bfQue el nivel del mar suba 40 cm a final de siglo o\u00a0dos metros? O este otro ejemplo, \u00bfque este<em> verano eterno<\/em> de 2022 siga siendo algo excepcional o que sea mucho m\u00e1s normal en el futuro y tengamos que buscar medidas de adaptaci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s fuertes para sobrellevarlo? Los l\u00edmites establecidos en el Acuerdo de Par\u00eds nos mantendr\u00edan en escenarios parecidos a lo que tenemos ahora y mantenernos en ellos a\u00fan es posible, pero no queda demasiado tiempo para lograrlo. Adem\u00e1s, conseguirlo no es como quien estudia un examen el d\u00eda de antes y consigue aprobar: las acciones deben tomarse cuanto antes y las \u00faltimas publicaciones al respecto nos dicen que no estamos ni mucho menos en la senda para lograrlo.\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Gonzalo Eltesch<\/b><strong>:\u00a0<\/strong><b>\u00bfQu\u00e9 podemos hacer nosotros para contribuir y frenar el cambio clim\u00e1tico?<\/b><\/p><p><strong>Isabel Moreno<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0Para mitigar el cambio clim\u00e1tico casi que podr\u00edamos decir que todo lo que queramos (y podamos, porque no siempre se puede) \u00a1Y m\u00e1s! Porque lo que est\u00e1 gener\u00e1ndolo es mucho m\u00e1s profundo de lo que nos puede parecer en un primer momento. Aunque nos pueda sorprender, las famosas recomendaciones de separar nuestros residuos o utilizar luces\u00a0led tienen una capacidad de mitigaci\u00f3n muy peque\u00f1a comparada con otras acciones. \u00a1Ojo! Es muy importante hacerlo, por supuesto que s\u00ed, pero sin perder el foco de que otras cuestiones relacionadas con c\u00f3mo nos desplazamos o la forma en la que gestionamos nuestra alimentaci\u00f3n tienen una huella much\u00edsimo mayor. De todas formas, siempre se\u00f1alo que no podemos buscar una especie de <em>check-list<\/em> definitiva con acciones que podamos ir tachando para mitigar por completo el cambio clim\u00e1tico, porque en algunos casos hay cuestiones que se escapan de nuestro rango de acci\u00f3n o son dif\u00edciles de conseguir como, por ejemplo, elegir de d\u00f3nde viene la energ\u00eda que estamos consumiendo. Podremos reducir nuestro consumo energ\u00e9tico, s\u00ed, pero hasta cierto punto y en muchos casos no podemos controlar desde qu\u00e9 fuente se est\u00e1 generando esa energ\u00eda (y no, no vamos a resolver el cambio clim\u00e1tico \u00fanicamente sustituyendo una forma de obtener la energ\u00eda por otra). O nuestra falta de tiempo diario nos va a hacer dif\u00edcil buscar alimentos de proximidad y, adem\u00e1s, baratos. Nuestras acciones sumadas pueden tener un gran peso y, adem\u00e1s, debemos tener en cuenta que ninguna acci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica ser\u00e1 posible si la ciudadan\u00eda no se suma a 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CONTENIDOS DE INTER\u00c9S:<\/strong><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/yuval-noah-harari-futuro-daniel-kahneman\\\">El futuro seg\u00fan Yuval Noah Harari: las personas no ser\u00e1n necesarias<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/la-invasion-rusa\/anne-applebaum-rusia-ucrania-miguel-aguilar\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Anne Applebaum: la crisis ucraniana en cinco preguntas<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/elon-musk-twitter-marta-peirano\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Elon Musk y el futuro de Twitter en cinco preguntas<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/capitalismo-jeannette-von-wolfersdorff\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">La neuroqu\u00edmica del capitalismo: narcisismo, dopamina y testosterona<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/malcolm-gladwell-el-clan-de-los-bombarderos\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">El hombre que se enamor\u00f3 del napalm<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/hector-garcia-barnes-futurofobia-sergio-del-molino\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">V\u00edctimas de la \u00abfuturofobia\u00bb: una generaci\u00f3n triste con fotos 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10 minutos

16 de septiembre de 2022: montones de residuos textiles desechados en la orilla de la playa de Chorkor en Accra, Ghana. Crédito: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds (Getty Images).

Gonzalo Eltesch: ¿Cuáles son las causas del cambio climático?

Isabel Moreno: Del actual, principalmente las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero provenientes de las actividades del ser humano. Los cambios climáticos se producen porque hay un desequilibrio entre la energía que entra y que sale en el sistema climático y esto se puede conseguir de múltiples formas pero, en el cambio actual, son las actividades del ser humano las que están detrás de él. Como decía, la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero provocada por el ser humano es la principal causa, pero nuestra especie también contribuye de otras formas, bien sea emitiendo otro tipo de gases o cambiando los usos de suelo.

Gonzalo ElteschEn diferentes lugares del mundo se están produciendo ya sea olas de frío u olas de calor, ¿por qué este gran contraste?

Isabel Moreno: Porque que el planeta se esté calentando no implica que en todos los lugares del mundo, todos los días del año, vaya a hacer más calor de lo normal… el sistema climático se comporta de una forma un poco más compleja y provoca que los extremos cálidos sean mucho más frecuentes e intensos que antes, pero no elimina los extremos fríos. De hecho, esto estaba ya predicho hace tiempo: las olas de frío no iban a desaparecer, pero sí se iban a hacer menos frecuentes y es justo lo que estamos observando en la actualidad. Por otro lado, hay otras relaciones que pueden traer olas de frío a algunas regiones del mundo o una alternancia más marcada entre episodios de calor extremo seguidos de temperaturas más bajas.   

Gonzalo Eltesch¿Hay vuelta atrás para evitar una catástrofe climática?

Isabel Moreno¿Qué consideramos catástrofe? Algunas personas consideramos que los cambios que ya se han producido son una catástrofe… y lo peor es que en determinados aspectos ya no hay vuelta atrás hagamos lo que hagamos, como en el caso de la subida del nivel del mar. El sistema climático tiene una inercia enorme y, en determinados casos, cada paso avanzado es un paso del que costará mucho retroceder. En algunos aspectos son décadas, en otros siglos, milenios… Ahora bien, ¿qué preferimos? ¿Que el nivel del mar suba 40 cm a final de siglo o dos metros? O este otro ejemplo, ¿que este verano eterno de 2022 siga siendo algo excepcional o que sea mucho más normal en el futuro y tengamos que buscar medidas de adaptación mucho más fuertes para sobrellevarlo? Los límites establecidos en el Acuerdo de París nos mantendrían en escenarios parecidos a lo que tenemos ahora y mantenernos en ellos aún es posible, pero no queda demasiado tiempo para lograrlo. Además, conseguirlo no es como quien estudia un examen el día de antes y consigue aprobar: las acciones deben tomarse cuanto antes y las últimas publicaciones al respecto nos dicen que no estamos ni mucho menos en la senda para lograrlo. 

Gonzalo Eltesch¿Qué podemos hacer nosotros para contribuir y frenar el cambio climático?

Isabel Moreno: Para mitigar el cambio climático casi que podríamos decir que todo lo que queramos (y podamos, porque no siempre se puede) ¡Y más! Porque lo que está generándolo es mucho más profundo de lo que nos puede parecer en un primer momento. Aunque nos pueda sorprender, las famosas recomendaciones de separar nuestros residuos o utilizar luces led tienen una capacidad de mitigación muy pequeña comparada con otras acciones. ¡Ojo! Es muy importante hacerlo, por supuesto que sí, pero sin perder el foco de que otras cuestiones relacionadas con cómo nos desplazamos o la forma en la que gestionamos nuestra alimentación tienen una huella muchísimo mayor. De todas formas, siempre señalo que no podemos buscar una especie de check-list definitiva con acciones que podamos ir tachando para mitigar por completo el cambio climático, porque en algunos casos hay cuestiones que se escapan de nuestro rango de acción o son difíciles de conseguir como, por ejemplo, elegir de dónde viene la energía que estamos consumiendo. Podremos reducir nuestro consumo energético, sí, pero hasta cierto punto y en muchos casos no podemos controlar desde qué fuente se está generando esa energía (y no, no vamos a resolver el cambio climático únicamente sustituyendo una forma de obtener la energía por otra). O nuestra falta de tiempo diario nos va a hacer difícil buscar alimentos de proximidad y, además, baratos. Nuestras acciones sumadas pueden tener un gran peso y, además, debemos tener en cuenta que ninguna acción climática será posible si la ciudadanía no se suma a ella.

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