La invasión rusa

Anne Applebaum: la crisis ucraniana en cinco preguntas

La posibilidad de una invasión rusa a Ucrania ha tenido al mundo en vilo durante semanas. Mucho se ha escrito sobre los movimientos de tropas y las consecuencias inmediatas para el mundo de una guerra en Europa del Este. La prestigiosa Anne Applebaum —ganadora del Pulitzer, especialista en la Rusia contemporánea y en las crisis que acechan a las democracias frágiles— dialoga con su editor en castellano, Miguel Aguilar, sobre los motivos culturales e históricos de la obsesión de Rusia con Ucrania, la fijación personal de Putin con esa región y la paradoja que enfrenta occidente: la de armar a Ucrania para impedir la guerra.

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Mucho se ha escrito sobre los movimientos de tropas y las consecuencias inmediatas para el mundo de una guerra en Europa del Este. La prestigiosa Anne Applebaum \u2014ganadora del Pulitzer, especialista en la Rusia contempor\u00e1nea y en las crisis que acechan a las democracias fr\u00e1giles\u2014 dialoga con su editor en castellano, Miguel Aguilar, sobre los motivos culturales e hist\u00f3ricos de la obsesi\u00f3n de Rusia con Ucrania, la fijaci\u00f3n personal de Putin con esa regi\u00f3n y la paradoja que enfrenta occidente: la de armar a Ucrania para impedir la 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style=\\\"text-align: right;\\\">25 de febrero de 2015. Ciudad de Starobeshevo, en el este de Ucrania, en la regi\u00f3n de Donetsk. Una bandera rusa ondea sobre militantes prorrusos sentados sobre un 2S1 Gvozdika. En la v\u00edspera, Francia, Alemania, Rusia y Ucrania pidieron eun alto el fuego total en la zona cuando Londres anunci\u00f3 que enviar\u00eda tropas para entrenar a las fuerzas gubernamentales que luchan contra los separatistas prorrusos. Cr\u00e9dito: Getty Images.<\/p>\",\"section_style\":\"\",\"align\":\"\",\"align_tablet\":\"\",\"align_mobile\":\"\",\"text_color\":\"\",\"typography_typography\":\"\",\"typography_font_size\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_family\":\"\",\"typography_font_family_custom\":\"\",\"typography_font_weight\":\"\",\"typography_text_transform\":\"\",\"typography_font_style\":\"\",\"typography_line_height\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"_section_style\":\"\",\"_margin\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"10\",\"right\":\"0\",\"bottom\":\"30\",\"left\":\"0\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_margin_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_animation\":\"\",\"animation_duration\":\"\",\"_css_classes\":\"\",\"_section_background\":\"\",\"_background_background\":\"\",\"_background_color\":\"\",\"_background_image\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_background_position\":\"\",\"_background_attachment\":\"\",\"_background_repeat\":\"\",\"_background_size\":\"\",\"_background_video_link\":\"\",\"_background_video_fallback\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_border_border\":\"\",\"_border_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_border_color\":\"\",\"_border_radius\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_box_shadow_box_shadow_type\":\"\",\"_box_shadow_box_shadow\":{\"horizontal\":0,\"vertical\":0,\"blur\":10,\"spread\":0,\"inset\":\"\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0.5)\"},\"_section_responsive\":\"\",\"responsive_description\":\"\",\"hide_desktop\":\"\",\"hide_tablet\":\"\",\"hide_mobile\":\"\"},\"defaultEditSettings\":[],\"widgetType\":\"text-editor\",\"editSettings\":{}}],\"editSettings\":{}}],\"editSettings\":{}},{\"id\":\"vg0cozk\",\"elType\":\"section\",\"isInner\":false,\"settings\":{\"section_layout\":\"\",\"stretch_section\":\"\",\"layout\":\"boxed\",\"content_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"gap\":\"default\",\"height\":\"default\",\"custom_height\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":400},\"column_position\":\"middle\",\"content_position\":\"\",\"structure\":\"20\",\"section_background\":\"\",\"background_background\":\"\",\"background_color\":\"\",\"background_color_stop\":{\"unit\":\"%\",\"size\":0},\"background_color_b\":\"\",\"background_color_b_stop\":{\"unit\":\"%\",\"size\":100},\"background_gradient_type\":\"linear\",\"background_gradient_angle\":{\"unit\":\"deg\",\"size\":180},\"background_gradient_position\":\"center 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Aguilar: \u00bfDe d\u00f3nde viene la obsesi\u00f3n de Rusia por Ucrania?<\/strong><\/p><p><strong><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/anne-applebaum-el-ocaso-de-la-democracia\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Anne Applebaum<\/a><\/span>:<\/strong> Hay tres razones. La primera es que Ucrania es una antigua colonia rusa y por lo tanto preocupa a Rusia, como quiz\u00e1s Argelia ha preocupado a Francia o <span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/patrick-radden-keefe-no-digas-nada-ira-irlanda-del-norte\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Irlanda al Reino Unido<\/a><\/span>. Se trata de dos pa\u00edses que han coexistido durante siglos dentro de un mismo estado. Sin embargo, a pesar de haber sido colonizada por el Imperio Ruso y luego por la Uni\u00f3n Sovi\u00e9tica, Ucrania tiene una identidad y un idioma distintos. Pero esta historia en com\u00fan provoca cierta dificultad en los rusos para aceptar que Ucrania es un pa\u00eds independiente del suyo. El verano pasado, Vladimir Putin public\u00f3 un largo ensayo, firmado de su pu\u00f1o y letra, y lo envi\u00f3 a todos los soldados rusos. En \u00e9l cuestionaba que Ucrania fuera un verdadero pa\u00eds, y afirmaba que su separaci\u00f3n de Rusia y el desarrollo de un idioma propio fueron b\u00e1sicamente accidentes de la Historia. La segunda raz\u00f3n es que Putin considera que <span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/muro-berlin-1989-gorbachov-taubman\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">el colapso de la URSS es la mayor cat\u00e1strofe geopol\u00edtica del siglo XX<\/a><\/span>. El s\u00edmbolo de este colapso fue la decisi\u00f3n de Ucrania de separarse de la Uni\u00f3n; a partir de entonces, la URSS dej\u00f3 de tener sentido. Putin vivi\u00f3 todo esto de manera muy personal; como agente de la KGB en Dresde, tuvo que destruir documentos confidenciales y sinti\u00f3 que su mundo se derrumbaba, tuvo que cambiar de carrera y vivi\u00f3 todo esto como una tragedia personal. Putin no comparti\u00f3 la euforia de finales de los 80 y de los a\u00f1os 90. Nunca experiment\u00f3 la libertad y la democracia como cosas positivas. Siempre las ha sentido como tragedias, tanto para \u00e9l personalmente como para 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tercera raz\u00f3n, y la m\u00e1s importante, es que el sistema pol\u00edtico ruso es una autocracia cleptocr\u00e1tica. Ucrania quiere ser otra cosa, quiere ser una\u00a0<span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/harari-sandel\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">democracia al estilo occidental<\/a><\/span> y verse integrada en las instituciones occidentales. Para Putin, eso supone un desaf\u00edo ideol\u00f3gico completamente inaceptable. La democracia y los movimientos democr\u00e1ticos de su pa\u00eds son la mayor amenaza a su poder personal. \u00c9l y su camarilla se sienten amenazados por el activismo democr\u00e1tico y las protestas, por las banderas de la Uni\u00f3n Europea, por el hecho de reclamar m\u00e1s libertades individuales. Ucrania, como pa\u00eds culturalmente cercano a Rusia, no puede convertirse en una democracia, en un estado de derecho; si esto sucediera, significar\u00eda que Rusia tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda convertirse en una democracia pr\u00f3spera al estilo europeo, lo que supondr\u00eda un gran desaf\u00edo para la autoridad de Putin.<\/p>\",\"section_style\":\"\",\"align\":\"\",\"align_tablet\":\"\",\"align_mobile\":\"\",\"text_color\":\"#1a1a1a\",\"typography_typography\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_size\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"18\"},\"typography_font_size_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_family\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_family_custom\":\"Fort-Book\",\"typography_font_weight\":\"\",\"typography_text_transform\":\"\",\"typography_font_style\":\"\",\"typography_line_height\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"27\"},\"typography_line_height_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"_section_style\":\"\",\"_margin\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"0\",\"bottom\":\"58\",\"left\":\"0\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_margin_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_animation\":\"\",\"animation_duration\":\"\",\"_css_classes\":\"\",\"_section_background\":\"\",\"_background_background\":\"\",\"_background_color\":\"\",\"_background_image\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_background_position\":\"\",\"_background_attachment\":\"\",\"_background_repeat\":\"\",\"_background_size\":\"\",\"_background_video_link\":\"\",\"_background_video_fallback\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_border_border\":\"\",\"_border_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_border_color\":\"\",\"_border_radius\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_box_shadow_box_shadow_type\":\"\",\"_box_shadow_box_shadow\":{\"horizontal\":0,\"vertical\":0,\"blur\":10,\"spread\":0,\"inset\":\"\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0.5)\"},\"_section_responsive\":\"\",\"responsive_description\":\"\",\"hide_desktop\":\"\",\"hide_tablet\":\"\",\"hide_mobile\":\"\"},\"defaultEditSettings\":[],\"widgetType\":\"text-editor\",\"editSettings\":{}},{\"id\":\"ibe7ikl\",\"elType\":\"widget\",\"isInner\":false,\"settings\":{\"section_editor\":\"\",\"editor\":\"<p>\u00abEl verano pasado, Vladimir Putin public\u00f3 un largo ensayo, firmado de su pu\u00f1o y letra, y lo envi\u00f3 a todos los soldados rusos. En \u00e9l cuestionaba que Ucrania fuera un verdadero pa\u00eds, y afirmaba que su separaci\u00f3n de Rusia y el desarrollo de un idioma propio fueron b\u00e1sicamente accidentes de la Historia\u00bb.<\/p>\",\"section_style\":\"\",\"align\":\"\",\"align_tablet\":\"\",\"align_mobile\":\"\",\"text_color\":\"#000000\",\"typography_typography\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_size\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"40\"},\"typography_font_size_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"24\"},\"typography_font_family\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_family_custom\":\"Vollkorn\",\"typography_font_weight\":\"\",\"typography_text_transform\":\"\",\"typography_font_style\":\"\",\"typography_line_height\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"45\"},\"typography_line_height_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"30\"},\"typography_letter_spacing\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"_section_style\":\"\",\"_margin\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"95\",\"bottom\":\"58\",\"left\":\"95\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"30\",\"bottom\":\"50\",\"left\":\"30\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_animation\":\"\",\"animation_duration\":\"\",\"_css_classes\":\"\",\"_section_background\":\"\",\"_background_background\":\"\",\"_background_color\":\"\",\"_background_image\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_background_position\":\"\",\"_background_attachment\":\"\",\"_background_repeat\":\"\",\"_background_size\":\"\",\"_background_video_link\":\"\",\"_background_video_fallback\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_border_border\":\"\",\"_border_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_border_color\":\"\",\"_border_radius\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_box_shadow_box_shadow_type\":\"\",\"_box_shadow_box_shadow\":{\"horizontal\":0,\"vertical\":0,\"blur\":10,\"spread\":0,\"inset\":\"\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0.5)\"},\"_section_responsive\":\"\",\"responsive_description\":\"\",\"hide_desktop\":\"\",\"hide_tablet\":\"\",\"hide_mobile\":\"\"},\"defaultEditSettings\":[],\"widgetType\":\"text-editor\",\"editSettings\":{}},{\"id\":\"nj6g6pa\",\"elType\":\"widget\",\"isInner\":false,\"settings\":{\"section_editor\":\"\",\"editor\":\"<p><strong><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/meigul\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Miguel Aguilar<\/a><\/span>: \u00bfExiste una identidad nacional ucraniana?<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Anne Applebaum:<\/strong> A principios de la Edad Media, el territorio de la Ucrania actual pertenec\u00eda a la federaci\u00f3n de la Rus de Kiev. Era un importante centro de comercio en ese momento. Parte de su territorio perteneci\u00f3 despu\u00e9s a Polonia-Lituania, lo que explica sus profundos lazos con Polonia y la existencia de dos Iglesias en Ucrania, la ortodoxa y la uniata, que reconoce la autoridad papal. A partir del siglo XVIII, la identidad ucraniana se vincul\u00f3 intensamente a las ideas de rebeli\u00f3n y anarqu\u00eda, comunes entre el campesinado del pa\u00eds. Era una identidad basada en una dial\u00e9ctica opresor\/oprimido, similar a los movimientos anticoloniales del siglo XX. La rusificaci\u00f3n tuvo como efecto que las \u00e9lites hablaran ruso, pero durante el siglo XIX apareci\u00f3 una \u00e9lite ucraniana que hablaba ucraniano, influida por una cultura aut\u00f3ctona campesina y religiosa. La identidad ucraniana est\u00e1 desde entonces asociada a una identidad europea y a una proximidad cultural con Polonia. Siempre ha tenido un componente, si no anti-ruso, al menos anti-Mosc\u00fa. La lengua ucraniana es diferente a la rusa, aunque el pa\u00eds sea biling\u00fce. De hecho, me parece que el ucraniano est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca del polaco que del ruso. Sin embargo, el ucraniano no es aceptado por los rusos. Pero los ucranianos <span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/chernobil-svetlana-alexievich-carmen-de-la-cueva\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">no se reconocen ni en la cultura ni en la historia rusa<\/a><\/span>, sino en la tierra ucraniana y en la cultura europea. Por su parte, los rusos llaman a Ucrania \u00abpeque\u00f1a Rusia\u00bb y muchos de ellos consideran a los ucranianos como sus \u00abhermanos peque\u00f1os\u00bb, con bastante 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Aguilar: \u00bfQu\u00e9 puede hacer Occidente frente a una autocracia dispuesta a usar la fuerza?<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Anne Applebaum:<\/strong> La mejor manera de oponerse al poder militar es la disuasi\u00f3n. Si queremos evitar que Rusia invada Ucrania, o cualquier otro pa\u00eds, tenemos que aumentar dr\u00e1sticamente el coste de una invasi\u00f3n. Si los rusos pensaran que la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania es excesivamente costosa, no lo har\u00edan. Si barajan esta opci\u00f3n es porque creen que ser\u00eda algo f\u00e1cil, porque Ucrania carece de\u00a0<span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/lawrence-wright-la-torre-elevada\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">defensas antia\u00e9reas<\/a><\/span> y su ej\u00e9rcito est\u00e1 mal equipado. Eso es lo que intento transmitir a todas las personas con las que hablo, especialmente en Alemania. Puede parecer parad\u00f3jico, pero si queremos evitar la guerra, debemos armar a Ucrania. Por el contrario, no apoyar materialmente a Ucrania podr\u00eda alentar a los rusos a invadir. Por supuesto creo que la diplomacia tiene un papel importante en la resoluci\u00f3n de esta crisis. Pero cuando un pa\u00eds conf\u00eda en su poder militar para conseguir sus objetivos, lamentablemente tienes que aceptar ese juego.<\/p>\",\"section_style\":\"\",\"align\":\"\",\"align_tablet\":\"\",\"align_mobile\":\"\",\"text_color\":\"#1a1a1a\",\"typography_typography\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_size\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"18\"},\"typography_font_size_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_family\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_family_custom\":\"Fort-Book\",\"typography_font_weight\":\"\",\"typography_text_transform\":\"\",\"typography_font_style\":\"\",\"typography_line_height\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"27\"},\"typography_line_height_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"_section_style\":\"\",\"_margin\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"0\",\"bottom\":\"58\",\"left\":\"0\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_margin_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_animation\":\"\",\"animation_duration\":\"\",\"_css_classes\":\"\",\"_section_background\":\"\",\"_background_background\":\"\",\"_background_color\":\"\",\"_background_image\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_background_position\":\"\",\"_background_attachment\":\"\",\"_background_repeat\":\"\",\"_background_size\":\"\",\"_background_video_link\":\"\",\"_background_video_fallback\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_border_border\":\"\",\"_border_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_border_color\":\"\",\"_border_radius\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_box_shadow_box_shadow_type\":\"\",\"_box_shadow_box_shadow\":{\"horizontal\":0,\"vertical\":0,\"blur\":10,\"spread\":0,\"inset\":\"\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0.5)\"},\"_section_responsive\":\"\",\"responsive_description\":\"\",\"hide_desktop\":\"\",\"hide_tablet\":\"\",\"hide_mobile\":\"\"},\"defaultEditSettings\":[],\"widgetType\":\"text-editor\",\"editSettings\":{}},{\"id\":\"3xbquu5\",\"elType\":\"widget\",\"isInner\":false,\"settings\":{\"section_editor\":\"\",\"editor\":\"<p>\u00abSi los rusos pensaran que la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania es excesivamente costosa, no lo har\u00edan. Si lo barajan es porque creen que ser\u00eda algo f\u00e1cil, porque Ucrania carece de defensas antia\u00e9reas y su ej\u00e9rcito est\u00e1 mal equipado. Eso es lo que intento transmitir a todas las personas con las que hablo, especialmente en Alemania. Puede parecer parad\u00f3jico, pero si queremos evitar la guerra, debemos armar a Ucrania\u00bb.<\/p>\",\"section_style\":\"\",\"align\":\"\",\"align_tablet\":\"\",\"align_mobile\":\"\",\"text_color\":\"#000000\",\"typography_typography\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_size\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"40\"},\"typography_font_size_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_font_size_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"24\"},\"typography_font_family\":\"custom\",\"typography_font_family_custom\":\"Vollkorn\",\"typography_font_weight\":\"\",\"typography_text_transform\":\"\",\"typography_font_style\":\"\",\"typography_line_height\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"45\"},\"typography_line_height_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"em\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_line_height_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"30\"},\"typography_letter_spacing\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"typography_letter_spacing_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"size\":\"\"},\"_section_style\":\"\",\"_margin\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"95\",\"bottom\":\"58\",\"left\":\"95\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"0\",\"right\":\"30\",\"bottom\":\"50\",\"left\":\"30\",\"isLinked\":false},\"_margin_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_tablet\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_padding_mobile\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_animation\":\"\",\"animation_duration\":\"\",\"_css_classes\":\"\",\"_section_background\":\"\",\"_background_background\":\"\",\"_background_color\":\"\",\"_background_image\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_background_position\":\"\",\"_background_attachment\":\"\",\"_background_repeat\":\"\",\"_background_size\":\"\",\"_background_video_link\":\"\",\"_background_video_fallback\":{\"url\":\"\",\"id\":\"\"},\"_border_border\":\"\",\"_border_width\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_border_color\":\"\",\"_border_radius\":{\"unit\":\"px\",\"top\":\"\",\"right\":\"\",\"bottom\":\"\",\"left\":\"\",\"isLinked\":true},\"_box_shadow_box_shadow_type\":\"\",\"_box_shadow_box_shadow\":{\"horizontal\":0,\"vertical\":0,\"blur\":10,\"spread\":0,\"inset\":\"\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0.5)\"},\"_section_responsive\":\"\",\"responsive_description\":\"\",\"hide_desktop\":\"\",\"hide_tablet\":\"\",\"hide_mobile\":\"\"},\"defaultEditSettings\":[],\"widgetType\":\"text-editor\",\"editSettings\":{}},{\"id\":\"lo2gpai\",\"elType\":\"widget\",\"isInner\":false,\"settings\":{\"section_editor\":\"\",\"editor\":\"<p><strong>Miguel Aguilar: \u00bfPor qu\u00e9 deber\u00edamos preocuparnos por el destino de Ucrania?<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Anne Applebaum:<\/strong> Porque tendr\u00e1 consecuencias econ\u00f3micas, nos guste o no. La invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania tendr\u00eda consecuencias para la estabilidad de Europa, sus aliados y sus mercados en todo el mundo. La seguridad de pa\u00edses como Polonia, Ruman\u00eda, los pa\u00edses b\u00e1lticos e incluso Alemania quedar\u00eda inmediatamente en entredicho. Rusia se convertir\u00eda en un actor clave en la pol\u00edtica europea. Tal situaci\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n\u00a0<span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/Antonio-Scurati-Pablo-Simon-Mussolini-Fascismo\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">debilitar\u00eda la confianza que tenemos en las democracias<\/a><\/span> y en las instituciones occidentales, ya sea la Uni\u00f3n Europea o la OTAN. A su vez, y vimos que esto ya sucedi\u00f3 con la invasi\u00f3n de Crimea en 2014, las democracias tambi\u00e9n se ver\u00edan interpeladas desde dentro. Hay un cierto sentimiento de que las autocracias son m\u00e1s fuertes, lo que las hace m\u00e1s atractivas. Esto explica en parte<span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"> <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/memorias-hunter-biden-cosas-bonitas\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">el fen\u00f3meno Trump<\/a><\/span>. Tambi\u00e9n habr\u00eda otras consecuencias nefastas para Europa occidental: \u00bftiene intenci\u00f3n de acoger a millones de refugiados ucranianos? Y eso solo ser\u00eda el principio. El suministro de gas se desestabilizar\u00eda permanentemente. Adem\u00e1s,<span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"> <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/monica-bernabe-afganistan\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">las guerras son impredecibles e incontrolables<\/a><\/span>, ser\u00eda muy dif\u00edcil saber d\u00f3nde terminar\u00e1 todo esto. Si los documentos confidenciales obtenidos por los estadounidenses son fiables y si realmente existe un plan para invadir Kiev, una importante ciudad europea, ser\u00eda algo inaudito desde 1945.<\/p><p><br \/><br \/><br \/><strong>OTROS CONTENIDOS DE INTER\u00c9S:<\/strong><br \/><br \/><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/entrevistas\/anne-applebaum-el-ocaso-de-la-democracia\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Anne Applebaum y la crisis de Occidente: \u00abHemos tratado a la democracia como si fuera agua del grifo\u00bb<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/Antonio-Scurati-Pablo-Simon-Mussolini-Fascismo\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">\u00bfPuede volver el fascismo?<\/a><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\\\"text-decoration: underline;\\\"><a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.penguinlibros.com\/es\/revista-lengua\/no-ficcion\/harari-sandel\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\">Yuval Noah Harari y Michael J. Sandel: estos son los fantasmas que recorren nuestro 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10 minutos

25 de febrero de 2015. Ciudad de Starobeshevo, en el este de Ucrania, en la región de Donetsk. Una bandera rusa ondea sobre militantes prorrusos sentados sobre un 2S1 Gvozdika. En la víspera, Francia, Alemania, Rusia y Ucrania pidieron eun alto el fuego total en la zona cuando Londres anunció que enviaría tropas para entrenar a las fuerzas gubernamentales que luchan contra los separatistas prorrusos. Crédito: Getty Images.

Miguel Aguilar: ¿De dónde viene la obsesión de Rusia por Ucrania?

Anne Applebaum: Hay tres razones. La primera es que Ucrania es una antigua colonia rusa y por lo tanto preocupa a Rusia, como quizás Argelia ha preocupado a Francia o Irlanda al Reino Unido. Se trata de dos países que han coexistido durante siglos dentro de un mismo estado. Sin embargo, a pesar de haber sido colonizada por el Imperio Ruso y luego por la Unión Soviética, Ucrania tiene una identidad y un idioma distintos. Pero esta historia en común provoca cierta dificultad en los rusos para aceptar que Ucrania es un país independiente del suyo. El verano pasado, Vladimir Putin publicó un largo ensayo, firmado de su puño y letra, y lo envió a todos los soldados rusos. En él cuestionaba que Ucrania fuera un verdadero país, y afirmaba que su separación de Rusia y el desarrollo de un idioma propio fueron básicamente accidentes de la Historia. La segunda razón es que Putin considera que el colapso de la URSS es la mayor catástrofe geopolítica del siglo XX. El símbolo de este colapso fue la decisión de Ucrania de separarse de la Unión; a partir de entonces, la URSS dejó de tener sentido. Putin vivió todo esto de manera muy personal; como agente de la KGB en Dresde, tuvo que destruir documentos confidenciales y sintió que su mundo se derrumbaba, tuvo que cambiar de carrera y vivió todo esto como una tragedia personal. Putin no compartió la euforia de finales de los 80 y de los años 90. Nunca experimentó la libertad y la democracia como cosas positivas. Siempre las ha sentido como tragedias, tanto para él personalmente como para Rusia.

La tercera razón, y la más importante, es que el sistema político ruso es una autocracia cleptocrática. Ucrania quiere ser otra cosa, quiere ser una democracia al estilo occidental y verse integrada en las instituciones occidentales. Para Putin, eso supone un desafío ideológico completamente inaceptable. La democracia y los movimientos democráticos de su país son la mayor amenaza a su poder personal. Él y su camarilla se sienten amenazados por el activismo democrático y las protestas, por las banderas de la Unión Europea, por el hecho de reclamar más libertades individuales. Ucrania, como país culturalmente cercano a Rusia, no puede convertirse en una democracia, en un estado de derecho; si esto sucediera, significaría que Rusia también podría convertirse en una democracia próspera al estilo europeo, lo que supondría un gran desafío para la autoridad de Putin.

«El verano pasado, Vladimir Putin publicó un largo ensayo, firmado de su puño y letra, y lo envió a todos los soldados rusos. En él cuestionaba que Ucrania fuera un verdadero país, y afirmaba que su separación de Rusia y el desarrollo de un idioma propio fueron básicamente accidentes de la Historia».

Miguel Aguilar: ¿Existe una identidad nacional ucraniana?

Anne Applebaum: A principios de la Edad Media, el territorio de la Ucrania actual pertenecía a la federación de la Rus de Kiev. Era un importante centro de comercio en ese momento. Parte de su territorio perteneció después a Polonia-Lituania, lo que explica sus profundos lazos con Polonia y la existencia de dos Iglesias en Ucrania, la ortodoxa y la uniata, que reconoce la autoridad papal. A partir del siglo XVIII, la identidad ucraniana se vinculó intensamente a las ideas de rebelión y anarquía, comunes entre el campesinado del país. Era una identidad basada en una dialéctica opresor/oprimido, similar a los movimientos anticoloniales del siglo XX. La rusificación tuvo como efecto que las élites hablaran ruso, pero durante el siglo XIX apareció una élite ucraniana que hablaba ucraniano, influida por una cultura autóctona campesina y religiosa. La identidad ucraniana está desde entonces asociada a una identidad europea y a una proximidad cultural con Polonia. Siempre ha tenido un componente, si no anti-ruso, al menos anti-Moscú. La lengua ucraniana es diferente a la rusa, aunque el país sea bilingüe. De hecho, me parece que el ucraniano está más cerca del polaco que del ruso. Sin embargo, el ucraniano no es aceptado por los rusos. Pero los ucranianos no se reconocen ni en la cultura ni en la historia rusa, sino en la tierra ucraniana y en la cultura europea. Por su parte, los rusos llaman a Ucrania «pequeña Rusia» y muchos de ellos consideran a los ucranianos como sus «hermanos pequeños», con bastante condescendencia.

Vladimir Putin en una imagen de archivo. Crédito: Getty Images.

Miguel Aguilar: ¿La agresividad de la política exterior rusa es una distracción de los graves problemas internos que padece?

Anne Applebaum: Es probable que esa sea parte de la explicación. Pero me cuesta creer que Vladimir Putin piense que una invasión de Ucrania podría ser popular en Rusia. La ocupación de Crimea lo fue, ¡pero fue una invasión sin muertos! Por otro lado, la invasión de Ucrania sería muy costosa y bombardear Kiev no gustaría a los rusos. La mayoría de ellos no ve a Ucrania como un enemigo a derrotar y esta invasión podría conducir a una catástrofe política en Rusia.

Kiev, Ucrania. 12 de febrero de 2022. Manifestantes ucranianos durante la llamada Marcha de la Unidad, evento organizado para mostrar solidaridad y espíritu patriótico en plena escalada de tensiones con Rusia. Crédito: Getty Images.

Miguel Aguilar: ¿Qué puede hacer Occidente frente a una autocracia dispuesta a usar la fuerza?

Anne Applebaum: La mejor manera de oponerse al poder militar es la disuasión. Si queremos evitar que Rusia invada Ucrania, o cualquier otro país, tenemos que aumentar drásticamente el coste de una invasión. Si los rusos pensaran que la invasión de Ucrania es excesivamente costosa, no lo harían. Si barajan esta opción es porque creen que sería algo fácil, porque Ucrania carece de defensas antiaéreas y su ejército está mal equipado. Eso es lo que intento transmitir a todas las personas con las que hablo, especialmente en Alemania. Puede parecer paradójico, pero si queremos evitar la guerra, debemos armar a Ucrania. Por el contrario, no apoyar materialmente a Ucrania podría alentar a los rusos a invadir. Por supuesto creo que la diplomacia tiene un papel importante en la resolución de esta crisis. Pero cuando un país confía en su poder militar para conseguir sus objetivos, lamentablemente tienes que aceptar ese juego.

«Si los rusos pensaran que la invasión de Ucrania es excesivamente costosa, no lo harían. Si lo barajan es porque creen que sería algo fácil, porque Ucrania carece de defensas antiaéreas y su ejército está mal equipado. Eso es lo que intento transmitir a todas las personas con las que hablo, especialmente en Alemania. Puede parecer paradójico, pero si queremos evitar la guerra, debemos armar a Ucrania».

Miguel Aguilar: ¿Por qué deberíamos preocuparnos por el destino de Ucrania?

Anne Applebaum: Porque tendrá consecuencias económicas, nos guste o no. La invasión de Ucrania tendría consecuencias para la estabilidad de Europa, sus aliados y sus mercados en todo el mundo. La seguridad de países como Polonia, Rumanía, los países bálticos e incluso Alemania quedaría inmediatamente en entredicho. Rusia se convertiría en un actor clave en la política europea. Tal situación también debilitaría la confianza que tenemos en las democracias y en las instituciones occidentales, ya sea la Unión Europea o la OTAN. A su vez, y vimos que esto ya sucedió con la invasión de Crimea en 2014, las democracias también se verían interpeladas desde dentro. Hay un cierto sentimiento de que las autocracias son más fuertes, lo que las hace más atractivas. Esto explica en parte el fenómeno Trump. También habría otras consecuencias nefastas para Europa occidental: ¿tiene intención de acoger a millones de refugiados ucranianos? Y eso solo sería el principio. El suministro de gas se desestabilizaría permanentemente. Además, las guerras son impredecibles e incontrolables, sería muy difícil saber dónde terminará todo esto. Si los documentos confidenciales obtenidos por los estadounidenses son fiables y si realmente existe un plan para invadir Kiev, una importante ciudad europea, sería algo inaudito desde 1945.




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